Qualification · Qualification 71

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

37.33 – 76.77

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

60 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 17.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 126.8 ±19.7

9180Ursa Major Robotics

Season APEX 56Event APEX 11.14Rank 34Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

4862Manning Mountaineers

Provisional

Season APEX 38.3Event APEX 6.74Rank 42Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9465Imagine High Axolotls

Provisional

Season APEX 32.5Event APEX 19.45Rank 37Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 210.8 ±17

10384Sparkanovas

Season APEX 76.5Event APEX 14.52Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

9474Red River Resistance (3R)

Provisional

Season APEX 44Event APEX 10.94Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10951Saigon South Dragons

Season APEX 90.3Event APEX 51.31Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9180, 4862, 9465

/ 100 compat

Projected

37.3 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 9180, 4862, 9465

Auto

6.5 16%

Teleop

23.7 58%

Endgame

10.6 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10384, 9474, 10951

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.8 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 10384, 9474, 10951

Auto

16.5 30%

Teleop

25.5 46%

Endgame

13.8 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.13 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score37.3pts

Blue projected score76.8pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -39.4
Score range: 14–100
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 124 vs event baseline 130.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

126.8Season APEX210.8

6.5Auto16.5

23.7Teleop25.5

10.6Endgame13.8

25Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	20
teleop	32	33
endgame	21	6
foul	0	5
total	60	64

Result

Final score

60 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 17.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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