Qualification · Qualification 69

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

246.91 – 218.44

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

275 – 164

Prediction correct · off by 41.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 503.2 ±13.6

359Hawaiian Kids

Season APEX 268.2Event APEX 199.73Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9277Sparkans

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 28.57Rank 14Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11149Blue Lightning

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 18.61Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 319 ±14.8

3683Team DAVE

Season APEX 197.1Event APEX 173.39Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8339Penticton Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 44.4Event APEX 19.97Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7334Esquimalt Proton Pulverizers

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 25.08Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 359, 9277, 11149

/ 100 compat

Projected

246.9 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 359, 9277, 11149

Auto

36.7 15%

Teleop

150.3 63%

Endgame

52.0 22%

Strengths

· 359 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3683, 8339, 7334

/ 100 compat

Projected

218.4 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3683, 8339, 7334

Auto

47.8 22%

Teleop

123.3 58%

Endgame

43.0 20%

Strengths

· 3683 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.75 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score246.9pts

Blue projected score218.4pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 28.5
Score range: 195–270
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 439 vs event baseline 129.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

503.2Season APEX319

36.7Auto47.8

150.3Teleop123.3

52Endgame43

61Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	68	66
teleop	133	51
endgame	74	42
foul	0	5
total	275	164

Result

Final score

275 – 164

Prediction correct · off by 41.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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