Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

95.45 – 241.18

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

97 – 249

Prediction correct · off by 4.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 161.6 ±15.8

6390Hephaestus

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 26.46Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 83

5461Victorian Engineered Robotic Nation or V.E.R.N.

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 40.89Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9719ThunderTech Robotics

Season APEX 50Event APEX 28.1Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 461.9 ±11.9

610Crescent Coyotes

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 71.82Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9406TechJunior

Season APEX 155.3Event APEX 109.44Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10120Wulfa the Wolf

Season APEX 91.3Event APEX 59.92Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6390, 5461, 9719

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.4 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 6390, 5461, 9719

Auto

25.3 31%

Teleop

30.4 38%

Endgame

24.9 31%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 610, 9406, 10120

/ 100 compat

Projected

241.2 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 610, 9406, 10120

Auto

33.2 14%

Teleop

154.5 64%

Endgame

52.6 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.68 · Blue 2.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score95.4pts

Blue projected score241.2pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -145.7
Score range: 72–264
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 346 vs event baseline 128.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

161.6Season APEX461.9

25.3Auto33.2

30.4Teleop154.5

24.9Endgame52.6

0Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	44
teleop	50	141
endgame	33	54
foul	0	10
total	97	249

Result

Final score

97 – 249

Prediction correct · off by 4.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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