Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

195.31 – 188.95

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

223 – 207

Prediction correct · off by 22.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 289.9 ±17.3

3990Tech for Kids

Season APEX 192.3Event APEX 143.4Rank 4Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8331Carson Graham Secondary

Season APEX 66Event APEX 40.83Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

11354Access2Innovate Foundation

Provisional

Season APEX 31.6Event APEX 11.08Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 341.9 ±17.3

7688Creekside Robotics

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX 48.16Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

7796Breaker Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 47.6Event APEX 8.01Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

6766AtomStorm

Season APEX 226.7Event APEX 132.78Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3990, 8331, 11354

/ 100 compat

Projected

195.3 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 3990, 8331, 11354

Auto

48.3 25%

Teleop

96.4 51%

Endgame

45.7 24%

Strengths

· 3990 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7688, 7796, 6766

/ 100 compat

Projected

189 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 7688, 7796, 6766

Auto

39.5 24%

Teleop

81.3 49%

Endgame

46.0 28%

Strengths

· 6766 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.6 · Blue 1.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score195.3pts

Blue projected score189pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 6.4
Score range: 166–218
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 430 vs event baseline 127.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

289.9Season APEX341.9

48.3Auto39.5

96.4Teleop81.3

45.7Endgame46

0Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	67	48
teleop	109	102
endgame	47	57
foul	0	0
total	223	207

Result

Final score

223 – 207

Prediction correct · off by 22.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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