Qualification · Qualification 66

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

148.05 – 117.28

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

127 – 171

Prediction missed · off by 37.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 303.9 ±16.2

10384Sparkanovas

Season APEX 76.5Event APEX 17.94Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

4421FORGE Robotics

Season APEX 221.8Event APEX 135.75Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9550STRIX Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 5.6Event APEX -5.64Rank 43Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 381.4 ±13.9

9474Red River Resistance (3R)

Provisional

Season APEX 44Event APEX 6.05Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2013Cybergnomes

Season APEX 113.6Event APEX 11.49Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4270Crusaders

Season APEX 223.8Event APEX 99.74Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10384, 4421, 9550

/ 100 compat

Projected

148.1 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 10384, 4421, 9550

Auto

28.7 22%

Teleop

74.3 57%

Endgame

28.5 22%

Strengths

· 4421 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9474, 2013, 4270

/ 100 compat

Projected

117.3 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9474, 2013, 4270

Auto

27.7 24%

Teleop

47.3 40%

Endgame

42.2 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.64 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score148.1pts

Blue projected score117.3pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 30.8
Score range: 94–171
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 298 vs event baseline 127.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

303.9Season APEX381.4

28.7Auto27.7

74.3Teleop47.3

28.5Endgame42.2

33Consistency84

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	22
teleop	79	87
endgame	14	62
foul	10	0
total	127	171

Result

Final score

127 – 171

Prediction missed · off by 37.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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