Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

77.27 – 61.07

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

96 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 21.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 245.3 ±18

9449Yellowjackets

Season APEX 164.3Event APEX 58.52Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7135System Reset

Provisional

Season APEX 40Event APEX 18.46Rank 41Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7332Vancouver Puddle Jumpers

Provisional

Season APEX 41Event APEX 0.29Rank 30Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 131.8 ±19.2

8790Departure

Provisional

Season APEX 38.8Event APEX 17.14Rank 40Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8338Bear Force

Season APEX 72.6Event APEX 38.32Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

11302Hot Rods

Provisional

Season APEX 20.4Event APEX 5.61Rank 44Record 1-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9449, 7135, 7332

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.3 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9449, 7135, 7332

Auto

14.6 21%

Teleop

48.0 68%

Endgame

7.7 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8790, 8338, 11302

/ 100 compat

Projected

61.1 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 8790, 8338, 11302

Auto

15.3 24%

Teleop

27.0 42%

Endgame

22.0 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.46 · Blue 1.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score77.3pts

Blue projected score61.1pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 16.2
Score range: 38–100
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 133 vs event baseline 127.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

245.3Season APEX131.8

14.6Auto15.3

48Teleop27

7.7Endgame22

0Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	12
teleop	70	14
endgame	10	6
foul	0	5
total	96	37

Result

Final score

96 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 21.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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