Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

95 – 89.27

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

114 – 146

Prediction missed · off by 37.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 303.2 ±14.8

5461Victorian Engineered Robotic Nation or V.E.R.N.

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 39.33Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9277Sparkans

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 28.43Rank 14Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6188Sting Robotics

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 27.24Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 194 ±16.8

11149Blue Lightning

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 13.2Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

6390Hephaestus

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 21.65Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 83

10120Wulfa the Wolf

Season APEX 91.3Event APEX 54.42Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5461, 9277, 6188

/ 100 compat

Projected

95 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 5461, 9277, 6188

Auto

14.9 16%

Teleop

64.0 69%

Endgame

13.2 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11149, 6390, 10120

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.3 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 11149, 6390, 10120

Auto

13.4 15%

Teleop

62.5 72%

Endgame

10.7 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.42 · Blue 1.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score95pts

Blue projected score89.3pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 5.7
Score range: 66–118
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 260 vs event baseline 129.4.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

303.2Season APEX194

14.9Auto13.4

64Teleop62.5

13.2Endgame10.7

11Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	33
teleop	54	83
endgame	23	20
foul	20	10
total	114	146

Result

Final score

114 – 146

Prediction missed · off by 37.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.