Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

187.48 – 358.7

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

178 – 348

Prediction correct · off by 10.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 292.5 ±15.6

9406TechJunior

Season APEX 155.3Event APEX 111.54Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

105275-Star

Provisional

Season APEX 46.9Event APEX 24.93Rank 35Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10951Saigon South Dragons

Season APEX 90.3Event APEX 51.01Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 509 ±14

11391Hypatia

Provisional

Season APEX 48.5Event APEX 10.55Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3990Tech for Kids

Season APEX 192.3Event APEX 145.78Rank 4Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

359Hawaiian Kids

Season APEX 268.2Event APEX 202.37Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9406, 10527, 10951

/ 100 compat

Projected

187.5 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 9406, 10527, 10951

Auto

33.6 18%

Teleop

112.5 61%

Endgame

38.4 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11391, 3990, 359

/ 100 compat

Projected

358.7 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 11391, 3990, 359

Auto

78.8 22%

Teleop

189.2 54%

Endgame

84.7 24%

Strengths

· 359 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.75 · Blue 2.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score187.5pts

Blue projected score358.7pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -171.2
Score range: 164–382
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 526 vs event baseline 127.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

292.5Season APEX509

33.6Auto78.8

112.5Teleop189.2

38.4Endgame84.7

3Consistency63

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	58
teleop	90	201
endgame	38	89
foul	15	0
total	178	348

Result

Final score

178 – 348

Prediction correct · off by 10.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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