Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

205.44 – 121.94

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

221 – 137

Prediction correct · off by 15.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 291.5 ±17.7

9465Imagine High Axolotls

Provisional

Season APEX 32.5Event APEX 16.04Rank 37Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10427Kitimat Sentinels

Provisional

Season APEX 61.9Event APEX 17.01Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3683Team DAVE

Season APEX 197.1Event APEX 172.39Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 337.3 ±15.7

610Crescent Coyotes

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 69.72Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9180Ursa Major Robotics

Season APEX 56Event APEX 10.02Rank 34Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

8331Carson Graham Secondary

Season APEX 66Event APEX 42.2Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9465, 10427, 3683

/ 100 compat

Projected

205.4 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 9465, 10427, 3683

Auto

45.7 22%

Teleop

126.5 61%

Endgame

36.5 17%

Strengths

· 3683 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 610, 9180, 8331

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.9 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 610, 9180, 8331

Auto

24.7 20%

Teleop

52.0 43%

Endgame

45.4 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.02 · Blue 1.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score205.4pts

Blue projected score121.9pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 83.5
Score range: 99–228
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 358 vs event baseline 126.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

291.5Season APEX337.3

45.7Auto24.7

126.5Teleop52

36.5Endgame45.4

34Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	61	21
teleop	116	64
endgame	44	52
foul	0	0
total	221	137

Result

Final score

221 – 137

Prediction correct · off by 15.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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