Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

42.37 – 66.4

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

35 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 14.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 165.5 ±19.2

8338Bear Force

Season APEX 72.6Event APEX 33.84Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

11410WGSS Delta Lab

Provisional

Season APEX 48.9Event APEX 1.76Rank 18Record 6-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9474Red River Resistance (3R)

Provisional

Season APEX 44Event APEX 6.77Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 328.5 ±18.6

6188Sting Robotics

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 38.68Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

11391Hypatia

Provisional

Season APEX 48.5Event APEX 9.05Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7287Esquimalt Atom Smashers

Season APEX 220.7Event APEX 18.67Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8338, 11410, 9474

/ 100 compat

Projected

42.4 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 8338, 11410, 9474

Auto

16.2 37%

Teleop

16.5 38%

Endgame

10.6 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6188, 11391, 7287

/ 100 compat

Projected

66.4 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 6188, 11391, 7287

Auto

10.5 16%

Teleop

32.9 50%

Endgame

23.0 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.27 · Blue 1.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score42.4pts

Blue projected score66.4pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -24
Score range: 15–93
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 79 vs event baseline 147.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

165.5Season APEX328.5

16.2Auto10.5

16.5Teleop32.9

10.6Endgame23

31Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	16
teleop	17	8
endgame	12	20
foul	0	0
total	35	44

Result

Final score

35 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 14.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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