Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

46.45 – 126.82

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

95 – 149

Prediction correct · off by 35.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 112.1 ±20.2

9649Mulgrave Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 24.1Event APEX 1.04Rank 39Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

11302Hot Rods

Provisional

Season APEX 20.4Event APEX 1.64Rank 44Record 1-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7688Creekside Robotics

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX 43.77Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 276.3 ±18

9550STRIX Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 5.6Event APEX -8.65Rank 43Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9474Red River Resistance (3R)

Provisional

Season APEX 44Event APEX 4.38Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6766AtomStorm

Season APEX 226.7Event APEX 131.09Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9649, 11302, 7688

/ 100 compat

Projected

46.5 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 9649, 11302, 7688

Auto

19.7 48%

Teleop

10.1 25%

Endgame

11.1 27%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9550, 9474, 6766

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.8 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 9550, 9474, 6766

Auto

27.1 24%

Teleop

63.9 56%

Endgame

22.9 20%

Strengths

· 6766 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.84 · Blue 1.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score46.5pts

Blue projected score126.8pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -80.4
Score range: 23–150
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 244 vs event baseline 127.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

112.1Season APEX276.3

19.7Auto27.1

10.1Teleop63.9

11.1Endgame22.9

66Consistency121

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	38
teleop	42	59
endgame	21	37
foul	20	15
total	95	149

Result

Final score

95 – 149

Prediction correct · off by 35.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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