Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

118.51 – 60.87

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

183 – 53

Prediction correct · off by 36.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 308.2 ±17.7

8339Penticton Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 44.4Event APEX 14.39Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4270Crusaders

Season APEX 223.8Event APEX 93.03Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7135System Reset

Provisional

Season APEX 40Event APEX 11.09Rank 41Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 249.4 ±15.1

10384Sparkanovas

Season APEX 76.5Event APEX 18.81Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2013Cybergnomes

Season APEX 113.6Event APEX 11.43Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6188Sting Robotics

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 30.63Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8339, 4270, 7135

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.5 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 8339, 4270, 7135

Auto

18.7 16%

Teleop

62.7 54%

Endgame

33.8 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10384, 2013, 6188

/ 100 compat

Projected

60.9 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 10384, 2013, 6188

Auto

17.1 44%

Teleop

22.4 57%

Endgame

-0.3 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.82 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score118.5pts

Blue projected score60.9pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 57.6
Score range: 38–142
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 236 vs event baseline 127.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

308.2Season APEX249.4

18.7Auto17.1

62.7Teleop22.4

33.8Endgame-0.3

61Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	12
teleop	91	21
endgame	65	20
foul	5	0
total	183	53

Result

Final score

183 – 53

Prediction correct · off by 36.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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