Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

232.37 – 232.31

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

239 – 292

Prediction missed · off by 33.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 459.1 ±12.9

9277Sparkans

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 29.13Rank 14Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3990Tech for Kids

Season APEX 192.3Event APEX 147.89Rank 4Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10120Wulfa the Wolf

Season APEX 91.3Event APEX 55.35Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 561.5 ±13.3

8338Bear Force

Season APEX 72.6Event APEX 31.67Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

359Hawaiian Kids

Season APEX 268.2Event APEX 194.1Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7287Esquimalt Atom Smashers

Season APEX 220.7Event APEX 6.54Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9277, 3990, 10120

/ 100 compat

Projected

232.4 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9277, 3990, 10120

Auto

42.8 19%

Teleop

147.7 64%

Endgame

40.6 18%

Strengths

· 3990 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8338, 359, 7287

/ 100 compat

Projected

232.3 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 8338, 359, 7287

Auto

47.6 20%

Teleop

126.5 54%

Endgame

59.7 26%

Strengths

· 359 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.6 · Blue 1.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score232.4pts

Blue projected score232.3pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0.1
Score range: 209–255
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 531 vs event baseline 125.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

459.1Season APEX561.5

42.8Auto47.6

147.7Teleop126.5

40.6Endgame59.7

29Consistency46

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	39
teleop	170	155
endgame	14	83
foul	0	15
total	239	292

Result

Final score

239 – 292

Prediction missed · off by 33.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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