Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

81.22 – 297.09

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

45 – 322

Prediction correct · off by 30.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 131.7 ±19.1

8331Carson Graham Secondary

Season APEX 66Event APEX 49.46Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9465Imagine High Axolotls

Provisional

Season APEX 32.5Event APEX 22.21Rank 37Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7190Vancouver Rainstorms

Season APEX 33.2Event APEX 9.55Rank 31Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 541.4 ±10.4

9449Yellowjackets

Season APEX 164.3Event APEX 56.49Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4421FORGE Robotics

Season APEX 221.8Event APEX 131.16Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9406TechJunior

Season APEX 155.3Event APEX 109.44Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8331, 9465, 7190

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.2 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 8331, 9465, 7190

Auto

17.9 24%

Teleop

30.2 41%

Endgame

25.4 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9449, 4421, 9406

/ 100 compat

Projected

297.1 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9449, 4421, 9406

Auto

50.6 18%

Teleop

187.4 66%

Endgame

48.0 17%

Strengths

· 4421 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.52 · Blue 2.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score81.2pts

Blue projected score297.1pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -215.9
Score range: 59–319
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 367 vs event baseline 124.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

131.7Season APEX541.4

17.9Auto50.6

30.2Teleop187.4

25.4Endgame48

6Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	54
teleop	10	185
endgame	18	83
foul	0	0
total	45	322

Result

Final score

45 – 322

Prediction correct · off by 30.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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