Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

209.08 – 42.27

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

164 – 39

Prediction correct · off by 24.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 364.5 ±14

6364Ten Ton

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 10.2Rank 36Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3683Team DAVE

Season APEX 197.1Event APEX 178.78Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11149Blue Lightning

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 20.1Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 127.4 ±20.8

11410WGSS Delta Lab

Provisional

Season APEX 48.9Event APEX -0.12Rank 18Record 6-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

105275-Star

Provisional

Season APEX 46.9Event APEX 27.05Rank 35Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

11354Access2Innovate Foundation

Provisional

Season APEX 31.6Event APEX 15.34Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6364, 3683, 11149

/ 100 compat

Projected

209.1 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 6364, 3683, 11149

Auto

53.4 25%

Teleop

127.2 60%

Endgame

32.3 15%

Strengths

· 3683 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11410, 10527, 11354

/ 100 compat

Projected

42.3 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 11410, 10527, 11354

Auto

5.7 12%

Teleop

31.0 67%

Endgame

9.8 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.23 · Blue 0.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score209.1pts

Blue projected score42.3pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 166.8
Score range: 20–231
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 203 vs event baseline 124.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

364.5Season APEX127.4

53.4Auto5.7

127.2Teleop31

32.3Endgame9.8

43Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	13
teleop	74	11
endgame	79	10
foul	0	5
total	164	39

Result

Final score

164 – 39

Prediction correct · off by 24.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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