Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

66.8 – 75.53

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

30 – 78

Prediction correct · off by 19.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 157.9 ±18.4

5461Victorian Engineered Robotic Nation or V.E.R.N.

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 44.19Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11391Hypatia

Provisional

Season APEX 48.5Event APEX 17.22Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7332Vancouver Puddle Jumpers

Provisional

Season APEX 41Event APEX 5.39Rank 30Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 183.4 ±17.7

4862Manning Mountaineers

Provisional

Season APEX 38.3Event APEX 6Rank 42Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7334Esquimalt Proton Pulverizers

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 27.15Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7688Creekside Robotics

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX 42.38Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5461, 11391, 7332

/ 100 compat

Projected

66.8 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 5461, 11391, 7332

Auto

11.0 18%

Teleop

27.2 45%

Endgame

22.7 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4862, 7334, 7688

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.5 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 4862, 7334, 7688

Auto

18.1 25%

Teleop

20.5 28%

Endgame

34.0 47%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.32 · Blue 1.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score66.8pts

Blue projected score75.5pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -8.7
Score range: 44–99
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 108 vs event baseline 126.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

157.9Season APEX183.4

11Auto18.1

27.2Teleop20.5

22.7Endgame34

14Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	2	25
teleop	14	31
endgame	9	7
foul	5	15
total	30	78

Result

Final score

30 – 78

Prediction correct · off by 19.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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