Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

78.13 – 105.13

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

89 – 129

Prediction correct · off by 17.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 176.7 ±18.8

7796Breaker Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 47.6Event APEX 9.35Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

10951Saigon South Dragons

Season APEX 90.3Event APEX 53.09Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8790Departure

Provisional

Season APEX 38.8Event APEX 15.69Rank 40Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 320.4 ±15.8

10427Kitimat Sentinels

Provisional

Season APEX 61.9Event APEX 16.12Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6390Hephaestus

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 19.13Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 83

610Crescent Coyotes

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 69.88Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7796, 10951, 8790

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.1 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 7796, 10951, 8790

Auto

28.5 41%

Teleop

12.0 17%

Endgame

28.3 41%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10427, 6390, 610

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.1 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 10427, 6390, 610

Auto

25.1 25%

Teleop

46.0 46%

Endgame

28.3 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.19 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score78.1pts

Blue projected score105.1pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -27
Score range: 55–128
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 218 vs event baseline 126.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

176.7Season APEX320.4

28.5Auto25.1

12Teleop46

28.3Endgame28.3

0Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	24
teleop	49	75
endgame	26	30
foul	0	0
total	89	129

Result

Final score

89 – 129

Prediction correct · off by 17.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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