Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

125.84 – 367.13

5%95%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

178 – 328

Prediction correct · off by 45.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 363.1 ±13.7

4270Crusaders

Season APEX 223.8Event APEX 86Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4627Manning Robotics

Season APEX 83.3Event APEX 35.09Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9180Ursa Major Robotics

Season APEX 56Event APEX 4.75Rank 34Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 544.9 ±13.2

359Hawaiian Kids

Season APEX 268.2Event APEX 200.61Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6766AtomStorm

Season APEX 226.7Event APEX 133.22Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9719ThunderTech Robotics

Season APEX 50Event APEX 33.3Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4270, 4627, 9180

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.8 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 4270, 4627, 9180

Auto

12.4 10%

Teleop

69.0 57%

Endgame

40.6 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 359, 6766, 9719

/ 100 compat

Projected

367.1 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 359, 6766, 9719

Auto

66.3 19%

Teleop

183.1 53%

Endgame

93.4 27%

Strengths

· 359 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.59 · Blue 2.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score125.8pts

Blue projected score367.1pts

Red win probability5%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -241.3
Score range: 104–389
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 506 vs event baseline 124.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

363.1Season APEX544.9

12.4Auto66.3

69Teleop183.1

40.6Endgame93.4

48Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	63
teleop	66	177
endgame	75	73
foul	5	15
total	178	328

Result

Final score

178 – 328

Prediction correct · off by 45.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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