Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

149.16 – 97.1

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

145 – 74

Prediction correct · off by 13.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 551.5 ±12.9

9277Sparkans

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 32.39Rank 14Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9406TechJunior

Season APEX 155.3Event APEX 109.99Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7287Esquimalt Atom Smashers

Season APEX 220.7Event APEX 6.78Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 165.3 ±19.6

8331Carson Graham Secondary

Season APEX 66Event APEX 50.45Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

6188Sting Robotics

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 33.08Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

7135System Reset

Provisional

Season APEX 40Event APEX 13.57Rank 41Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9277, 9406, 7287

/ 100 compat

Projected

149.2 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 9277, 9406, 7287

Auto

29.8 20%

Teleop

90.6 60%

Endgame

30.4 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8331, 6188, 7135

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.1 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 8331, 6188, 7135

Auto

20.5 24%

Teleop

40.5 48%

Endgame

23.8 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.87 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score149.2pts

Blue projected score97.1pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 52.1
Score range: 75–171
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 219 vs event baseline 124.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

551.5Season APEX165.3

29.8Auto20.5

90.6Teleop40.5

30.4Endgame23.8

54Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	33
teleop	115	25
endgame	7	16
foul	0	0
total	145	74

Result

Final score

145 – 74

Prediction correct · off by 13.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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