Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

40.33 – 38.77

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

14 – 144

Prediction missed · off by 65.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 165.6 ±17.7

11302Hot Rods

Provisional

Season APEX 20.4Event APEX 9.48Rank 44Record 1-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

11354Access2Innovate Foundation

Provisional

Season APEX 31.6Event APEX 15.04Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2013Cybergnomes

Season APEX 113.6Event APEX 15.81Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 235.3 ±18

105275-Star

Provisional

Season APEX 46.9Event APEX 10.11Rank 35Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9449Yellowjackets

Season APEX 164.3Event APEX 42.32Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9649Mulgrave Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 24.1Event APEX -13.66Rank 39Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11302, 11354, 2013

/ 100 compat

Projected

40.3 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 11302, 11354, 2013

Auto

2.4 7%

Teleop

23.8 66%

Endgame

9.7 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10527, 9449, 9649

/ 100 compat

Projected

38.8 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 10527, 9449, 9649

Auto

14.5 35%

Teleop

23.3 56%

Endgame

3.9 9%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.38 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score40.3pts

Blue projected score38.8pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 1.6
Score range: 16–63
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 158 vs event baseline 125.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

165.6Season APEX235.3

2.4Auto14.5

23.8Teleop23.3

9.7Endgame3.9

15Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	20
teleop	1	86
endgame	1	23
foul	5	15
total	14	144

Result

Final score

14 – 144

Prediction missed · off by 65.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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