Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

286.66 – 41.37

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

221 – 33

Prediction correct · off by 37 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 560 ±11

359Hawaiian Kids

Season APEX 268.2Event APEX 196.19Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

610Crescent Coyotes

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 76.52Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10384Sparkanovas

Season APEX 76.5Event APEX 13.95Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 124.6 ±20.2

7332Vancouver Puddle Jumpers

Provisional

Season APEX 41Event APEX 6.43Rank 30Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

11149Blue Lightning

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 29.27Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9649Mulgrave Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 24.1Event APEX 5.67Rank 39Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 359, 610, 10384

/ 100 compat

Projected

286.7 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 359, 610, 10384

Auto

50.8 19%

Teleop

147.6 55%

Endgame

69.8 26%

Strengths

· 359 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7332, 11149, 9649

/ 100 compat

Projected

41.4 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 7332, 11149, 9649

Auto

7.5 20%

Teleop

23.9 63%

Endgame

6.5 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.47 · Blue 0.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score286.7pts

Blue projected score41.4pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 245.3
Score range: 14–314
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 254 vs event baseline 147.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

560Season APEX124.6

50.8Auto7.5

147.6Teleop23.9

69.8Endgame6.5

28Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	1
teleop	110	17
endgame	65	0
foul	10	15
total	221	33

Result

Final score

221 – 33

Prediction correct · off by 37 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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