Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

56.76 – 196.88

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

57 – 244

Prediction correct · off by 23.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 156.1 ±18.4

8790Departure

Provisional

Season APEX 38.8Event APEX 15.89Rank 40Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5461Victorian Engineered Robotic Nation or V.E.R.N.

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 44.81Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11410WGSS Delta Lab

Provisional

Season APEX 48.9Event APEX -3.94Rank 18Record 6-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 327 ±15.6

3990Tech for Kids

Season APEX 192.3Event APEX 142.88Rank 4Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8339Penticton Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 44.4Event APEX 9.1Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10951Saigon South Dragons

Season APEX 90.3Event APEX 44.9Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8790, 5461, 11410

/ 100 compat

Projected

56.8 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 8790, 5461, 11410

Auto

20.5 37%

Teleop

16.3 30%

Endgame

18.3 33%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3990, 8339, 10951

/ 100 compat

Projected

196.9 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 3990, 8339, 10951

Auto

51.0 27%

Teleop

106.7 56%

Endgame

31.9 17%

Strengths

· 3990 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.65 · Blue 2.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score56.8pts

Blue projected score196.9pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -140.1
Score range: 34–220
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 301 vs event baseline 125.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

156.1Season APEX327

20.5Auto51

16.3Teleop106.7

18.3Endgame31.9

0Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	47
teleop	8	126
endgame	20	66
foul	5	5
total	57	244

Result

Final score

57 – 244

Prediction correct · off by 23.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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