Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

101.55 – 11.09

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

216 – 14

Prediction correct · off by 58.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 355.5 ±15.1

7688Creekside Robotics

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX 29.21Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

610Crescent Coyotes

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 51.62Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8338Bear Force

Season APEX 72.6Event APEX 20.72Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 109.2 ±19.7

9180Ursa Major Robotics

Season APEX 56Event APEX 5.83Rank 34Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

7796Breaker Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 47.6Event APEX 10.22Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

9550STRIX Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 5.6Event APEX -4.96Rank 43Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7688, 610, 8338

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.6 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 7688, 610, 8338

Auto

24.8 23%

Teleop

42.7 39%

Endgame

42.2 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9180, 7796, 9550

/ 100 compat

Projected

11.1 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 9180, 7796, 9550

Auto

6.8 100%

Teleop

-9.3 0%

Endgame

8.4 100%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2 · Blue 0.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score101.6pts

Blue projected score11.1pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 90.5
Score range: -12–125
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 230 vs event baseline 125.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

355.5Season APEX109.2

24.8Auto6.8

42.7Teleop-9.3

42.2Endgame8.4

73Consistency68

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	4
teleop	116	7
endgame	62	3
foul	0	0
total	216	14

Result

Final score

216 – 14

Prediction correct · off by 58.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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