Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

187.29 – 297.06

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

191 – 353

Prediction correct · off by 29.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 353.2 ±13.5

6766AtomStorm

Season APEX 226.7Event APEX 133.74Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4627Manning Robotics

Season APEX 83.3Event APEX 37.63Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6390Hephaestus

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 15.92Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 83

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 459.9 ±14.3

3683Team DAVE

Season APEX 197.1Event APEX 166.17Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7332Vancouver Puddle Jumpers

Provisional

Season APEX 41Event APEX 7.9Rank 30Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4421FORGE Robotics

Season APEX 221.8Event APEX 122.99Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6766, 4627, 6390

/ 100 compat

Projected

187.3 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 6766, 4627, 6390

Auto

38.6 25%

Teleop

84.9 55%

Endgame

31.4 20%

Strengths

· 6766 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3683, 7332, 4421

/ 100 compat

Projected

297.1 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3683, 7332, 4421

Auto

73.6 25%

Teleop

170.9 58%

Endgame

51.8 17%

Strengths

· 3683 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.89 · Blue 2.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score187.3pts

Blue projected score297.1pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -109.8
Score range: 165–319
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 544 vs event baseline 122.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

353.2Season APEX459.9

38.6Auto73.6

84.9Teleop170.9

31.4Endgame51.8

0Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	69
teleop	99	227
endgame	47	52
foul	15	5
total	191	353

Result

Final score

191 – 353

Prediction correct · off by 29.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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