Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

26.61 – 204.08

10%90%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

61 – 275

Prediction correct · off by 52.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 317.6 ±17.5

11302Hot Rods

Provisional

Season APEX 20.4Event APEX 4.13Rank 44Record 1-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7287Esquimalt Atom Smashers

Season APEX 220.7Event APEX -2.63Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

10384Sparkanovas

Season APEX 76.5Event APEX 25.11Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 338.6 ±17.4

11354Access2Innovate Foundation

Provisional

Season APEX 31.6Event APEX 8.88Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8790Departure

Provisional

Season APEX 38.8Event APEX 7.08Rank 40Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

359Hawaiian Kids

Season APEX 268.2Event APEX 188.12Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11302, 7287, 10384

/ 100 compat

Projected

26.6 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 11302, 7287, 10384

Auto

1.9 100%

Teleop

-5.3 0%

Endgame

4.6 100%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11354, 8790, 359

/ 100 compat

Projected

204.1 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 11354, 8790, 359

Auto

42.5 22%

Teleop

110.6 56%

Endgame

43.8 22%

Strengths

· 359 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.55 · Blue 2.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score26.6pts

Blue projected score204.1pts

Red win probability10%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -177.5
Score range: 5–226
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 336 vs event baseline 123.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

317.6Season APEX338.6

1.9Auto42.5

-5.3Teleop110.6

4.6Endgame43.8

6Consistency143

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	52
teleop	21	144
endgame	18	79
foul	5	0
total	61	275

Result

Final score

61 – 275

Prediction correct · off by 52.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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