Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

121.39 – 64.22

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

116 – 56

Prediction correct · off by 6.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 201.7 ±18.6

10120Wulfa the Wolf

Season APEX 91.3Event APEX 51.5Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

8331Carson Graham Secondary

Season APEX 66Event APEX 60.16Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

8339Penticton Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 44.4Event APEX 9.73Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 135.9 ±18.8

10951Saigon South Dragons

Season APEX 90.3Event APEX 54.09Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7135System Reset

Provisional

Season APEX 40Event APEX 11.35Rank 41Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9550STRIX Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 5.6Event APEX -1.22Rank 43Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10120, 8331, 8339

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.4 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 10120, 8331, 8339

Auto

11.1 10%

Teleop

65.7 58%

Endgame

35.8 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10951, 7135, 9550

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.2 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 10951, 7135, 9550

Auto

24.3 42%

Teleop

27.6 48%

Endgame

5.7 10%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.9 · Blue 1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score121.4pts

Blue projected score64.2pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 57.2
Score range: 42–143
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 172 vs event baseline 124.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

201.7Season APEX135.9

11.1Auto24.3

65.7Teleop27.6

35.8Endgame5.7

16Consistency68

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	11
teleop	81	26
endgame	11	19
foul	5	0
total	116	56

Result

Final score

116 – 56

Prediction correct · off by 6.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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