Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

134.54 – 314.93

10%90%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

187 – 399

Prediction correct · off by 68.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 341.5 ±11.9

9406TechJunior

Season APEX 155.3Event APEX 104.04Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8338Bear Force

Season APEX 72.6Event APEX 11.85Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2013Cybergnomes

Season APEX 113.6Event APEX 18.65Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 492.2 ±10.5

6766AtomStorm

Season APEX 226.7Event APEX 119.09Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3683Team DAVE

Season APEX 197.1Event APEX 158.9Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5461Victorian Engineered Robotic Nation or V.E.R.N.

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 36.94Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9406, 8338, 2013

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.5 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 9406, 8338, 2013

Auto

35.5 26%

Teleop

79.3 59%

Endgame

19.8 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6766, 3683, 5461

/ 100 compat

Projected

314.9 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 6766, 3683, 5461

Auto

62.8 22%

Teleop

174.2 60%

Endgame

54.6 19%

Strengths

· 3683 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.76 · Blue 2.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score134.5pts

Blue projected score314.9pts

Red win probability10%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -180.4
Score range: 113–337
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 586 vs event baseline 120.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

341.5Season APEX492.2

35.5Auto62.8

79.3Teleop174.2

19.8Endgame54.6

20Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	86
teleop	106	208
endgame	56	90
foul	0	15
total	187	399

Result

Final score

187 – 399

Prediction correct · off by 68.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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