Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

47.75 – 241.7

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

25 – 338

Prediction correct · off by 59.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 128.2 ±19.2

9474Red River Resistance (3R)

Provisional

Season APEX 44Event APEX 18.39Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7332Vancouver Puddle Jumpers

Provisional

Season APEX 41Event APEX 8.55Rank 30Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6390Hephaestus

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 20.81Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 83

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 470.1 ±13.1

4421FORGE Robotics

Season APEX 221.8Event APEX 102.29Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9180Ursa Major Robotics

Season APEX 56Event APEX -2.1Rank 34Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

3990Tech for Kids

Season APEX 192.3Event APEX 141.51Rank 4Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9474, 7332, 6390

/ 100 compat

Projected

47.8 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9474, 7332, 6390

Auto

21.7 70%

Teleop

22.7 74%

Endgame

-13.6 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4421, 9180, 3990

/ 100 compat

Projected

241.7 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 4421, 9180, 3990

Auto

41.2 17%

Teleop

148.5 62%

Endgame

49.9 21%

Strengths

· 3990 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.51 · Blue 2.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score47.8pts

Blue projected score241.7pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -193.9
Score range: 27–263
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 363 vs event baseline 118.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

128.2Season APEX470.1

21.7Auto41.2

22.7Teleop148.5

-13.6Endgame49.9

60Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	89
teleop	3	168
endgame	0	81
foul	0	0
total	25	338

Result

Final score

25 – 338

Prediction correct · off by 59.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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