Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

96.59 – 174.73

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

62 – 139

Prediction correct · off by 35.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 236.3 ±16.7

7190Vancouver Rainstorms

Season APEX 33.2Event APEX 13.27Rank 31Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

9449Yellowjackets

Season APEX 164.3Event APEX 65.79Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8790Departure

Provisional

Season APEX 38.8Event APEX 17.53Rank 40Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 358.2 ±14

5461Victorian Engineered Robotic Nation or V.E.R.N.

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 35.74Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4270Crusaders

Season APEX 223.8Event APEX 100.3Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8331Carson Graham Secondary

Season APEX 66Event APEX 38.69Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7190, 9449, 8790

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.6 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 7190, 9449, 8790

Auto

23.4 26%

Teleop

45.8 51%

Endgame

20.6 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5461, 4270, 8331

/ 100 compat

Projected

174.7 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 5461, 4270, 8331

Auto

29.5 18%

Teleop

73.0 44%

Endgame

62.3 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.88 · Blue 1.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score96.6pts

Blue projected score174.7pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -78.1
Score range: 70–202
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 201 vs event baseline 147.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

236.3Season APEX358.2

23.4Auto29.5

45.8Teleop73

20.6Endgame62.3

0Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	15
teleop	30	56
endgame	8	63
foul	0	5
total	62	139

Result

Final score

62 – 139

Prediction correct · off by 35.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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