Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

89.02 – 108.08

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

88 – 127

Prediction correct · off by 10 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 251.1 ±18

9449Yellowjackets

Season APEX 164.3Event APEX 43.03Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11391Hypatia

Provisional

Season APEX 48.5Event APEX 27.9Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4862Manning Mountaineers

Provisional

Season APEX 38.3Event APEX 18.09Rank 42Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 308.8 ±15.3

9719ThunderTech Robotics

Season APEX 50Event APEX 43.96Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9277Sparkans

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 34.03Rank 14Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4627Manning Robotics

Season APEX 83.3Event APEX 30.09Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9449, 11391, 4862

/ 100 compat

Projected

89 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9449, 11391, 4862

Auto

14.7 17%

Teleop

46.9 53%

Endgame

26.3 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9719, 9277, 4627

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.1 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9719, 9277, 4627

Auto

18.5 19%

Teleop

44.6 46%

Endgame

34.8 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.29 · Blue 1.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score89pts

Blue projected score108.1pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -19.1
Score range: 67–130
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 215 vs event baseline 120.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

251.1Season APEX308.8

14.7Auto18.5

46.9Teleop44.6

26.3Endgame34.8

5Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	19
teleop	42	85
endgame	33	18
foul	0	5
total	88	127

Result

Final score

88 – 127

Prediction correct · off by 10 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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