Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

47.34 – 35.12

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

43 – 69

Prediction missed · off by 19.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 225.4 ±15.6

7135System Reset

Provisional

Season APEX 40Event APEX 9.08Rank 41Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7334Esquimalt Proton Pulverizers

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 30.83Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6364Ten Ton

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 7.43Rank 36Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 241.3 ±17.7

11302Hot Rods

Provisional

Season APEX 20.4Event APEX -1.19Rank 44Record 1-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9550STRIX Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 5.6Event APEX -10.02Rank 43Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

610Crescent Coyotes

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 46.33Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7135, 7334, 6364

/ 100 compat

Projected

47.3 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 7135, 7334, 6364

Auto

5.8 13%

Teleop

20.9 45%

Endgame

19.4 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11302, 9550, 610

/ 100 compat

Projected

35.1 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 11302, 9550, 610

Auto

13.9 34%

Teleop

4.4 11%

Endgame

22.8 55%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.4 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score47.3pts

Blue projected score35.1pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 12.2
Score range: 13–69
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 112 vs event baseline 122.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

225.4Season APEX241.3

5.8Auto13.9

20.9Teleop4.4

19.4Endgame22.8

32Consistency112

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	13
teleop	13	38
endgame	17	18
foul	0	0
total	43	69

Result

Final score

43 – 69

Prediction missed · off by 19.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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