Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

9.3 – 138.59

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

49 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 30.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 138.8 ±19.7

9180Ursa Major Robotics

Season APEX 56Event APEX -3.78Rank 34Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

8790Departure

Provisional

Season APEX 38.8Event APEX 1.61Rank 40Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9474Red River Resistance (3R)

Provisional

Season APEX 44Event APEX 11.47Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 231.3 ±18

9406TechJunior

Season APEX 155.3Event APEX 109.9Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11354Access2Innovate Foundation

Provisional

Season APEX 31.6Event APEX 16.11Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8339Penticton Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 44.4Event APEX 12.58Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9180, 8790, 9474

/ 100 compat

Projected

9.3 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 9180, 8790, 9474

Auto

-4.8 0%

Teleop

16.0 100%

Endgame

2.7 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9406, 11354, 8339

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.6 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9406, 11354, 8339

Auto

10.9 8%

Teleop

96.1 73%

Endgame

24.1 18%

Strengths

· 9406 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.69 · Blue 2.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score9.3pts

Blue projected score138.6pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -129.3
Score range: -13–161
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 167 vs event baseline 120.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

138.8Season APEX231.3

-4.8Auto10.9

16Teleop96.1

2.7Endgame24.1

110Consistency70

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	13
teleop	20	103
endgame	8	2
foul	0	0
total	49	118

Result

Final score

49 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 30.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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