Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

187.69 – 143.74

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

118 – 148

Prediction missed · off by 37 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 343.2 ±17.3

10427Kitimat Sentinels

Provisional

Season APEX 61.9Event APEX 26.72Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

11149Blue Lightning

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 44.92Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

4421FORGE Robotics

Season APEX 221.8Event APEX 116.05Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 289 ±16.2

9649Mulgrave Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 24.1Event APEX -14.91Rank 39Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8338Bear Force

Season APEX 72.6Event APEX 18.49Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

3990Tech for Kids

Season APEX 192.3Event APEX 140.16Rank 4Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10427, 11149, 4421

/ 100 compat

Projected

187.7 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 10427, 11149, 4421

Auto

14.4 8%

Teleop

118.4 65%

Endgame

48.3 27%

Strengths

· 4421 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9649, 8338, 3990

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.7 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9649, 8338, 3990

Auto

29.2 19%

Teleop

99.7 64%

Endgame

26.3 17%

Strengths

· 3990 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.84 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score187.7pts

Blue projected score143.7pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43.9
Score range: 122–210
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 266 vs event baseline 120.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

343.2Season APEX289

14.4Auto29.2

118.4Teleop99.7

48.3Endgame26.3

64Consistency93

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	56
teleop	72	54
endgame	1	38
foul	5	0
total	118	148

Result

Final score

118 – 148

Prediction missed · off by 37 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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