Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

172.14 – 101.78

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

108 – 55

Prediction correct · off by 55.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 200.6 ±18

6188Sting Robotics

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 56.3Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

10120Wulfa the Wolf

Season APEX 91.3Event APEX 58.63Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

9719ThunderTech Robotics

Season APEX 50Event APEX 57.21Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 153.9 ±20.2

7332Vancouver Puddle Jumpers

Provisional

Season APEX 41Event APEX 22.94Rank 30Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

105275-Star

Provisional

Season APEX 46.9Event APEX 15.34Rank 35Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8331Carson Graham Secondary

Season APEX 66Event APEX 63.5Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6188, 10120, 9719

/ 100 compat

Projected

172.1 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 6188, 10120, 9719

Auto

13.8 9%

Teleop

98.8 62%

Endgame

47.9 30%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7332, 10527, 8331

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.8 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 7332, 10527, 8331

Auto

15.2 16%

Teleop

53.9 58%

Endgame

24.5 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.82 · Blue 1.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score172.1pts

Blue projected score101.8pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 70.4
Score range: 80–194
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 163 vs event baseline 121.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

200.6Season APEX153.9

13.8Auto15.2

98.8Teleop53.9

47.9Endgame24.5

0Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	31
teleop	55	2
endgame	24	22
foul	0	0
total	108	55

Result

Final score

108 – 55

Prediction correct · off by 55.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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