Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

104.36 – 184.6

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

100 – 274

Prediction correct · off by 46.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 322 ±14.8

4862Manning Mountaineers

Provisional

Season APEX 38.3Event APEX 20.07Rank 42Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5461Victorian Engineered Robotic Nation or V.E.R.N.

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 42.83Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

610Crescent Coyotes

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 41.46Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 400.4 ±15

4627Manning Robotics

Season APEX 83.3Event APEX 12.1Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

359Hawaiian Kids

Season APEX 268.2Event APEX 169.72Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11410WGSS Delta Lab

Provisional

Season APEX 48.9Event APEX 2.78Rank 18Record 6-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4862, 5461, 610

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.4 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4862, 5461, 610

Auto

9.5 10%

Teleop

49.6 52%

Endgame

36.9 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4627, 359, 11410

/ 100 compat

Projected

184.6 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 4627, 359, 11410

Auto

35.4 20%

Teleop

104.6 60%

Endgame

33.8 19%

Strengths

· 359 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.94 · Blue 1.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score104.4pts

Blue projected score184.6pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -80.2
Score range: 83–206
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 374 vs event baseline 119.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

322Season APEX400.4

9.5Auto35.4

49.6Teleop104.6

36.9Endgame33.8

21Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	58
teleop	43	132
endgame	39	69
foul	0	15
total	100	274

Result

Final score

100 – 274

Prediction correct · off by 46.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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