Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

135.9 – 85.94

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

186 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 27.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 336.4 ±14.7

7190Vancouver Rainstorms

Season APEX 33.2Event APEX -10.74Rank 31Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

10384Sparkanovas

Season APEX 76.5Event APEX 38.16Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

6766AtomStorm

Season APEX 226.7Event APEX 108.48Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 286.3 ±15.8

7688Creekside Robotics

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX 15.22Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

6390Hephaestus

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 32.15Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 83

9277Sparkans

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 38.57Rank 14Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7190, 10384, 6766

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.9 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 7190, 10384, 6766

Auto

18.6 16%

Teleop

73.6 64%

Endgame

22.7 20%

Strengths

· 6766 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7688, 6390, 9277

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.9 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 7688, 6390, 9277

Auto

29.4 38%

Teleop

42.7 55%

Endgame

5.0 6%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score135.9pts

Blue projected score85.9pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 50
Score range: 65–157
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 277 vs event baseline 118.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

336.4Season APEX286.3

18.6Auto29.4

73.6Teleop42.7

22.7Endgame5

101Consistency50

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	44
teleop	49	27
endgame	32	15
foul	70	5
total	186	91

Result

Final score

186 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 27.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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