Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

85.15 – 46.2

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

40 – 126

Prediction missed · off by 62.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 140.5 ±20.8

8339Penticton Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 44.4Event APEX 22.96Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

11391Hypatia

Provisional

Season APEX 48.5Event APEX 44.89Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7796Breaker Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 47.6Event APEX 17.3Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 304.7 ±15.1

9465Imagine High Axolotls

Provisional

Season APEX 32.5Event APEX 3.38Rank 37Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6364Ten Ton

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX -7.15Rank 36Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9449Yellowjackets

Season APEX 164.3Event APEX 49.97Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8339, 11391, 7796

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.1 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 8339, 11391, 7796

Auto

23.6 33%

Teleop

24.7 35%

Endgame

22.8 32%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9465, 6364, 9449

/ 100 compat

Projected

46.2 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 9465, 6364, 9449

Auto

9.3 26%

Teleop

24.8 70%

Endgame

1.2 3%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.69 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score85.1pts

Blue projected score46.2pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 39
Score range: 24–107
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 166 vs event baseline 120.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

140.5Season APEX304.7

23.6Auto9.3

24.7Teleop24.8

22.8Endgame1.2

16Consistency58

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	12
teleop	12	88
endgame	15	26
foul	5	0
total	40	126

Result

Final score

40 – 126

Prediction missed · off by 62.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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