Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

41.43 – 281.35

5%95%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

17 – 251

Prediction correct · off by 27.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 111.7 ±20.8

105275-Star

Provisional

Season APEX 46.9Event APEX 21.2Rank 35Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8339Penticton Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 44.4Event APEX 14.52Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

11302Hot Rods

Provisional

Season APEX 20.4Event APEX 5.71Rank 44Record 1-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 400 ±14.3

7796Breaker Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 47.6Event APEX 7.66Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

9406TechJunior

Season APEX 155.3Event APEX 109.77Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3683Team DAVE

Season APEX 197.1Event APEX 163.92Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10527, 8339, 11302

/ 100 compat

Projected

41.4 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 10527, 8339, 11302

Auto

8.9 24%

Teleop

21.6 59%

Endgame

5.9 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7796, 9406, 3683

/ 100 compat

Projected

281.3 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 7796, 9406, 3683

Auto

69.7 25%

Teleop

153.4 56%

Endgame

53.1 19%

Strengths

· 3683 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.51 · Blue 2.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score41.4pts

Blue projected score281.3pts

Red win probability5%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -239.9
Score range: 14–308
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 268 vs event baseline 147.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

111.7Season APEX400

8.9Auto69.7

21.6Teleop153.4

5.9Endgame53.1

38Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	97
teleop	11	100
endgame	0	49
foul	0	5
total	17	251

Result

Final score

17 – 251

Prediction correct · off by 27.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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