Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

21.5 – 93.94

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

37 – 182

Prediction correct · off by 51.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 109.8 ±19.2

9550STRIX Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 5.6Event APEX 5.04Rank 43Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

11354Access2Innovate Foundation

Provisional

Season APEX 31.6Event APEX -1.27Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8338Bear Force

Season APEX 72.6Event APEX 17.73Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 276.9 ±15.6

4627Manning Robotics

Season APEX 83.3Event APEX 0.78Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4862Manning Mountaineers

Provisional

Season APEX 38.3Event APEX 7.15Rank 42Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9406TechJunior

Season APEX 155.3Event APEX 86.01Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9550, 11354, 8338

/ 100 compat

Projected

21.5 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 9550, 11354, 8338

Auto

1.5 6%

Teleop

17.9 70%

Endgame

6.1 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4627, 4862, 9406

/ 100 compat

Projected

93.9 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4627, 4862, 9406

Auto

31.0 30%

Teleop

57.5 56%

Endgame

14.1 14%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.99 · Blue 1.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score21.5pts

Blue projected score93.9pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -72.4
Score range: 1–115
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 219 vs event baseline 116.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

109.8Season APEX276.9

1.5Auto31

17.9Teleop57.5

6.1Endgame14.1

118Consistency177

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	18
teleop	14	94
endgame	14	40
foul	0	30
total	37	182

Result

Final score

37 – 182

Prediction correct · off by 51.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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