Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

85.59 – 52.67

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

117 – 10

Prediction correct · off by 37 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 434.8 ±14.8

9277Sparkans

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 43.2Rank 14Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

610Crescent Coyotes

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 38.21Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9474Red River Resistance (3R)

Provisional

Season APEX 44Event APEX 4.18Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 193.7 ±16.4

2013Cybergnomes

Season APEX 113.6Event APEX 29.24Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7190Vancouver Rainstorms

Season APEX 33.2Event APEX -2.03Rank 31Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

105275-Star

Provisional

Season APEX 46.9Event APEX 25.46Rank 35Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9277, 610, 9474

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.6 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 9277, 610, 9474

Auto

3.7 4%

Teleop

48.3 56%

Endgame

34.5 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2013, 7190, 10527

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.7 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 2013, 7190, 10527

Auto

26.7 47%

Teleop

9.0 16%

Endgame

20.7 37%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.69 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score85.6pts

Blue projected score52.7pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 32.9
Score range: 32–107
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 127 vs event baseline 118.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

434.8Season APEX193.7

3.7Auto26.7

48.3Teleop9

34.5Endgame20.7

108Consistency69

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	9
teleop	66	1
endgame	26	0
foul	0	0
total	117	10

Result

Final score

117 – 10

Prediction correct · off by 37 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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