Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

250.94 – 106.4

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

302 – 174

Prediction correct · off by 59.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 377.4 ±14.8

8331Carson Graham Secondary

Season APEX 66Event APEX 74.46Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

359Hawaiian Kids

Season APEX 268.2Event APEX 152.11Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6390Hephaestus

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 24.37Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 83

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 295.6 ±18

6766AtomStorm

Season APEX 226.7Event APEX 89.97Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11302Hot Rods

Provisional

Season APEX 20.4Event APEX -22.3Rank 44Record 1-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

11391Hypatia

Provisional

Season APEX 48.5Event APEX 38.73Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8331, 359, 6390

/ 100 compat

Projected

250.9 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 8331, 359, 6390

Auto

42.5 17%

Teleop

126.2 52%

Endgame

74.5 31%

Strengths

· 359 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6766, 11302, 11391

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.4 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 6766, 11302, 11391

Auto

22.6 25%

Teleop

53.2 59%

Endgame

14.6 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.23 · Blue 0.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score250.9pts

Blue projected score106.4pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 144.5
Score range: 86–271
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 476 vs event baseline 113.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

377.4Season APEX295.6

42.5Auto22.6

126.2Teleop53.2

74.5Endgame14.6

54Consistency127

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	67	30
teleop	146	76
endgame	59	53
foul	30	15
total	302	174

Result

Final score

302 – 174

Prediction correct · off by 59.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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