Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

116.06 – 86.26

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

118 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 3.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 437 ±14.3

11410WGSS Delta Lab

Provisional

Season APEX 48.9Event APEX 16.86Rank 18Record 6-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9449Yellowjackets

Season APEX 164.3Event APEX 53.05Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4270Crusaders

Season APEX 223.8Event APEX 46.15Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 266.8 ±15.8

10120Wulfa the Wolf

Season APEX 91.3Event APEX 84.81Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

7688Creekside Robotics

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX 18.72Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

6364Ten Ton

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX -17.27Rank 36Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11410, 9449, 4270

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.1 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 11410, 9449, 4270

Auto

29.8 31%

Teleop

35.2 37%

Endgame

30.5 32%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10120, 7688, 6364

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.3 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 10120, 7688, 6364

Auto

11.2 12%

Teleop

59.9 64%

Endgame

22.7 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score116.1pts

Blue projected score86.3pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 29.8
Score range: 65–137
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 209 vs event baseline 114.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

437Season APEX266.8

29.8Auto11.2

35.2Teleop59.9

30.5Endgame22.7

92Consistency129

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	20
teleop	74	39
endgame	17	27
foul	0	5
total	118	91

Result

Final score

118 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 3.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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