Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

86.92 – 4.37

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

110 – 25

Prediction correct · off by 21.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 192.5 ±16.6

7796Breaker Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 47.6Event APEX 12.57Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

10384Sparkanovas

Season APEX 76.5Event APEX 37.74Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

5461Victorian Engineered Robotic Nation or V.E.R.N.

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 36.61Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 323.6 ±19.2

7287Esquimalt Atom Smashers

Season APEX 220.7Event APEX -33.43Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

10427Kitimat Sentinels

Provisional

Season APEX 61.9Event APEX 19.83Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7332Vancouver Puddle Jumpers

Provisional

Season APEX 41Event APEX 17.97Rank 30Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7796, 10384, 5461

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.9 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 7796, 10384, 5461

Auto

24.5 29%

Teleop

23.0 27%

Endgame

36.8 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7287, 10427, 7332

/ 100 compat

Projected

4.4 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 7287, 10427, 7332

Auto

7.8 0%

Teleop

-11.8 100%

Endgame

-3.1 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.86 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score86.9pts

Blue projected score4.4pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 82.6
Score range: -17–108
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 135 vs event baseline 116.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

192.5Season APEX323.6

24.5Auto7.8

23Teleop-11.8

36.8Endgame-3.1

0Consistency120

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	5
teleop	27	10
endgame	14	10
foul	60	0
total	110	25

Result

Final score

110 – 25

Prediction correct · off by 21.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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