Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

82.56 – 37.18

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

68 – 33

Prediction correct · off by 9.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 246.2 ±14.5

10951Saigon South Dragons

Season APEX 90.3Event APEX 53.82Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4627Manning Robotics

Season APEX 83.3Event APEX -0.42Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8338Bear Force

Season APEX 72.6Event APEX 29.16Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 111.3 ±20.8

7135System Reset

Provisional

Season APEX 40Event APEX 7.06Rank 41Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8790Departure

Provisional

Season APEX 38.8Event APEX 17.99Rank 40Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9465Imagine High Axolotls

Provisional

Season APEX 32.5Event APEX 12.13Rank 37Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10951, 4627, 8338

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.6 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 10951, 4627, 8338

Auto

17.1 25%

Teleop

23.8 35%

Endgame

26.8 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7135, 8790, 9465

/ 100 compat

Projected

37.2 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 7135, 8790, 9465

Auto

12.2 29%

Teleop

20.8 50%

Endgame

8.5 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.76 · Blue 1.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score82.6pts

Blue projected score37.2pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 45.4
Score range: 15–105
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 101 vs event baseline 119.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

246.2Season APEX111.3

17.1Auto12.2

23.8Teleop20.8

26.8Endgame8.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	13
teleop	41	12
endgame	9	8
foul	0	0
total	68	33

Result

Final score

68 – 33

Prediction correct · off by 9.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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