Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

196.28 – 0

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

373 – 17

Prediction correct · off by 96.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 448.7 ±13.5

3683Team DAVE

Season APEX 197.1Event APEX 104.87Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6188Sting Robotics

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 21.43Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

3990Tech for Kids

Season APEX 192.3Event APEX 69.98Rank 4Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 77.1 ±19.7

9550STRIX Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 5.6Event APEX -5.64Rank 43Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7190Vancouver Rainstorms

Season APEX 33.2Event APEX -14.85Rank 31Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

4862Manning Mountaineers

Provisional

Season APEX 38.3Event APEX 4.72Rank 42Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3683, 6188, 3990

/ 100 compat

Projected

196.3 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3683, 6188, 3990

Auto

62.2 34%

Teleop

70.2 38%

Endgame

53.1 29%

Strengths

· 3683 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9550, 7190, 4862

/ 100 compat

Projected

-15.8 pts

~0.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9550, 7190, 4862

Auto

8.8 0%

Teleop

-24.7 100%

Endgame

1.1 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.4 · Blue 0.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score196.3pts

Blue projected score-15.8pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 196.3
Score range: -21–217
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 390 vs event baseline 115.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

448.7Season APEX77.1

62.2Auto8.8

70.2Teleop-24.7

53.1Endgame1.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	79	13
teleop	238	2
endgame	51	2
foul	5	0
total	373	17

Result

Final score

373 – 17

Prediction correct · off by 96.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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