Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

106.43 – 54.67

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

163 – 153

Prediction correct · off by 77.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 301.9 ±18

11391Hypatia

Provisional

Season APEX 48.5Event APEX 37.06Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4421FORGE Robotics

Season APEX 221.8Event APEX 70.18Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11354Access2Innovate Foundation

Provisional

Season APEX 31.6Event APEX -0.81Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 309.7 ±17

610Crescent Coyotes

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 20.94Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9719ThunderTech Robotics

Season APEX 50Event APEX 45.5Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

8339Penticton Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 44.4Event APEX -11.77Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11391, 4421, 11354

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.4 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 11391, 4421, 11354

Auto

12.4 11%

Teleop

66.1 60%

Endgame

31.1 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 610, 9719, 8339

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.7 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 610, 9719, 8339

Auto

16.4 35%

Teleop

1.4 3%

Endgame

28.4 61%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.83 · Blue 1.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score106.4pts

Blue projected score54.7pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 51.8
Score range: 35–126
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 316 vs event baseline 113.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

301.9Season APEX309.7

12.4Auto16.4

66.1Teleop1.4

31.1Endgame28.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	19
teleop	113	84
endgame	39	45
foul	0	5
total	163	153

Result

Final score

163 – 153

Prediction correct · off by 77.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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