Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

85.22 – 0

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

30 – 27

Prediction correct · off by 41.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 270.4 ±14.8

6364Ten Ton

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 4.67Rank 36Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11410WGSS Delta Lab

Provisional

Season APEX 48.9Event APEX 25.51Rank 18Record 6-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2013Cybergnomes

Season APEX 113.6Event APEX 55.04Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 119.6 ±18

6390Hephaestus

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 18.35Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 83

11302Hot Rods

Provisional

Season APEX 20.4Event APEX -28.43Rank 44Record 1-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9180Ursa Major Robotics

Season APEX 56Event APEX -11.11Rank 34Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6364, 11410, 2013

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.2 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 6364, 11410, 2013

Auto

30.8 41%

Teleop

20.8 28%

Endgame

23.9 32%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6390, 11302, 9180

/ 100 compat

Projected

-21.2 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 6390, 11302, 9180

Auto

-1.4 10%

Teleop

-5.7 42%

Endgame

-6.4 47%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.95 · Blue 0.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score85.2pts

Blue projected score-21.2pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 85.2
Score range: -21–106
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 57 vs event baseline 118.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

270.4Season APEX119.6

30.8Auto-1.4

20.8Teleop-5.7

23.9Endgame-6.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	1
teleop	14	21
endgame	0	0
foul	0	5
total	30	27

Result

Final score

30 – 27

Prediction correct · off by 41.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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