Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

138.25 – 52.66

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

159 – 146

Prediction correct · off by 57 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 263.9 ±17.3

7332Vancouver Puddle Jumpers

Provisional

Season APEX 41Event APEX 16.96Rank 30Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7688Creekside Robotics

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX 29.57Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9406TechJunior

Season APEX 155.3Event APEX 91.72Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 461.2 ±14.8

4270Crusaders

Season APEX 223.8Event APEX 24Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9277Sparkans

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 30.33Rank 14Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10427Kitimat Sentinels

Provisional

Season APEX 61.9Event APEX -1.67Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7332, 7688, 9406

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.3 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 7332, 7688, 9406

Auto

38.3 28%

Teleop

69.2 51%

Endgame

27.8 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4270, 9277, 10427

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.7 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 4270, 9277, 10427

Auto

2.8 5%

Teleop

39.4 64%

Endgame

18.9 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.92 · Blue 1.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score138.3pts

Blue projected score52.7pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 85.6
Score range: 32–159
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 305 vs event baseline 116.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

263.9Season APEX461.2

38.3Auto2.8

69.2Teleop39.4

27.8Endgame18.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	19
teleop	113	63
endgame	8	49
foul	0	15
total	159	146

Result

Final score

159 – 146

Prediction correct · off by 57 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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