Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

25.14 – 168.73

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

31 – 326

Prediction correct · off by 81.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 115.7 ±20.8

9474Red River Resistance (3R)

Provisional

Season APEX 44Event APEX -12.56Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7796Breaker Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 47.6Event APEX 56.37Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

9649Mulgrave Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 24.1Event APEX -18.67Rank 39Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 427.9 ±12.1

359Hawaiian Kids

Season APEX 268.2Event APEX 106.94Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10120Wulfa the Wolf

Season APEX 91.3Event APEX 45.49Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

5461Victorian Engineered Robotic Nation or V.E.R.N.

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 16.3Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9474, 7796, 9649

/ 100 compat

Projected

25.1 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9474, 7796, 9649

Auto

14.5 73%

Teleop

-0.9 0%

Endgame

6.2 31%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 359, 10120, 5461

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.7 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 359, 10120, 5461

Auto

20.4 13%

Teleop

84.7 54%

Endgame

52.7 33%

Strengths

· 359 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.63 · Blue 2.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score25.1pts

Blue projected score168.7pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -143.6
Score range: 5–189
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 357 vs event baseline 112.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

115.7Season APEX427.9

14.5Auto20.4

-0.9Teleop84.7

6.2Endgame52.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	41
teleop	12	205
endgame	6	70
foul	0	10
total	31	326

Result

Final score

31 – 326

Prediction correct · off by 81.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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