Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 45.02

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

17 – 147

Prediction correct · off by 59.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 152.3 ±18.4

8790Departure

Provisional

Season APEX 38.8Event APEX 16.21Rank 40Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9550STRIX Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 5.6Event APEX -3.84Rank 43Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6364Ten Ton

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX -20.53Rank 36Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 303.2 ±18

11410WGSS Delta Lab

Provisional

Season APEX 48.9Event APEX 9.87Rank 18Record 6-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9465Imagine High Axolotls

Provisional

Season APEX 32.5Event APEX -3.84Rank 37Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4421FORGE Robotics

Season APEX 221.8Event APEX 38.99Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8790, 9550, 6364

/ 100 compat

Projected

-8.2 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 8790, 9550, 6364

Auto

1.0 0%

Teleop

-3.0 70%

Endgame

-2.3 53%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11410, 9465, 4421

/ 100 compat

Projected

45 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 11410, 9465, 4421

Auto

-3.1 0%

Teleop

34.6 72%

Endgame

16.3 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.97 · Blue 1.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score-8.2pts

Blue projected score45pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -45
Score range: -19–64
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 164 vs event baseline 103.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

152.3Season APEX303.2

1Auto-3.1

-3Teleop34.6

-2.3Endgame16.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	17
teleop	0	98
endgame	0	32
foul	0	0
total	17	147

Result

Final score

17 – 147

Prediction correct · off by 59.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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